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Housing Supply Update
Over recent weeks, a number of appeal decisions have been issued that materially change the five-year housing land supply (5YHLS) positions for several local planning authorities across the country. Notably, these include Tewkesbury Borough Council, Forest of Dean District Council, and Stratford-on-Avon District Council.
All of these changes stem from the revised standard method for calculating housing need, published alongside the December 2024 update to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF).
Tewkesbury Borough Council
In appeal APP/G1630/W/24/3357444, the Inspector recorded that both main parties agreed there is a housing shortfall in the Borough.
The Council argued they could demonstrate 3.4 years’ supply.
The Appellant maintained the supply was lower, at 2.58 years.
The Inspector did not issue a definitive figure but concluded that, whichever position is adopted, supply falls well below the five-year minimum requirement.
Forest of Dean District Council
In appeal APP/P1615/W/25/3363981, the Council, through a Statement of Common Ground, accepted that following the standard method changes their housing supply stood at only 1.81–1.93 years.
The Inspector endorsed these figures. This marks a sharp reduction from the Council’s most recently published figure of 3.32 years, further underlining the severity of the shortfall.
As a result, the presumption in favour of sustainable development continues to apply in the District.
Stratford-on-Avon District Council
In appeal APP/J3720/W/25/3358848, the Inspector reached a very different conclusion from the Council’s own position:
The Council contended they could demonstrate a 5YHLS.
The Inspector disagreed, making significant reductions to the deliverable supply.
This led to a revised supply of 2.74 years, equating to a shortfall of 2,285 dwellings.
The contrast with recent figures is stark:
October 2024: The Council claimed a 24.65 years’ supply.
June 2025: Following the standard method changes, this was revised to 5.06 years.
The Inspector held that past oversupply could only be applied to year 1 of the trajectory, removing four-fifths of the claimed benefit. In addition, disputed sites were removed from the deliverable supply, pushing the Council below the five-year threshold.
Conclusion
With Stratford-on-Avon now falling below the threshold, the presumption in favour of sustainable development is fully engaged. In fact, around two thirds of councils across England (including all Gloucestershire authorities) cannot demonstrate a 5YHLS.
For Tewkesbury and Forest of Dean, these outcomes confirm pre-existing housing supply shortfalls. However, the decision at Stratford-on-Avon represents a significant shift: the Council can no longer demonstrate a 5YHLS, meaning the presumption in favour of sustainable development is fully engaged.
This opens the door to a wider range of speculative development opportunities across the District.
If you would like tailored advice on how these changes may affect a site you own, propose to develop or seeking to promote, please contact the planning team at Evans Jones Ltd.